This morning, economists, financial journalists, and professional investors alike are not anxiously refreshing their laptops in anticipation of a new jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For the second consecutive month, that crucial dataset—typically a key indicator of national economic performance—has not been released. The absence stems from the ongoing government shutdown, which has forced the suspension of most official data collection and publication activities. This disruption comes during what has now become the longest government shutdown in United States history, extending its economic and administrative impact well beyond Washington.
Yet those hungry for insights into the health of the labor market are not entirely in the dark. In the absence of official information, job seekers, economists, and policy analysts have turned their attention to a range of privately released reports and proprietary data compiled by organizations such as ADP, Indeed, Bank of America, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and others. These corporations, each with unique access to employment and payroll information, offer partial but valuable glimpses into current conditions across the job market and the broader national economy. Their findings collectively suggest that October remained a challenging month for individuals searching for employment opportunities. Analyses revealed that announced job cuts rose sharply, overall demand for labor weakened to levels not observed in several years, and multiple indicators converged to portray a job market that continues to soften.
Allison Shrivastava, an economist with the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider that the availability of detailed private-sector data releases is “fortunate,” because they allow researchers and policymakers to piece together an approximate understanding of what is occurring within the economy despite the absence of official statistics. However, she also cautioned that many of these alternative datasets rely—at least in part—on baseline calibration from BLS data. Without that foundational reference, even the most sophisticated models lose clarity, leaving analysts to interpret a somewhat obscured picture of labor trends.
Private releases have nonetheless provided important clues. ADP’s National Employment Report, compiled from payroll data representing millions of workers, revealed that the U.S. economy added roughly 42,000 private-sector jobs in October, reversing declines observed over the previous two months. This exceeded consensus expectations of 32,000 jobs, but Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, emphasized that growth remained modest. The bulk of hiring came from large firms with more than 500 employees, suggesting that small and mid-sized businesses may still be struggling. Sector performance was uneven: while trade, transportation, and utilities together added 47,000 positions, employment contracted in several key industries—including information technology, manufacturing, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality. Bill Adams, chief economist of Comerica Bank, commented that widespread federal layoffs caused by the shutdown—figures excluded from ADP’s report—would effectively erase much of that private-sector gain. Thousands of federal employees remain furloughed and unpaid, reducing both income and demand across local economies.
Meanwhile, the outplacement and executive-placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas documented a dramatic escalation in announced job cuts. U.S.-based employers disclosed plans for 153,074 layoffs during October, nearly tripling the 54,064 announced a month earlier. This brought the total number of planned cuts for the year to more than one million—significantly exceeding the approximately 761,000 recorded during the entire previous year. According to Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer and workplace analyst, this surge largely reflects post-pandemic corrections: many firms that overexpanded during the COVID-era hiring boom now face pressure from weakening consumer and corporate demand, rising operational costs, and the rapid integration of artificial intelligence, which has altered staffing requirements. Together, these factors have led managers to tighten budgets and implement selective hiring freezes.
Economist Ernie Tedeschi of Yale’s Budget Lab offered a similar interpretation, suggesting that major employers such as Amazon—recently announcing a reduction of 14,000 corporate roles—are merely correcting for over-hiring during the pandemic and the subsequent “Great Resignation.” This recalibration, he noted, is part of a broader readjustment within corporate America, as growth expectations realign to more sustainable levels.
Further insight comes from Indeed, whose extensive job-posting data provides near real-time visibility into hiring behavior. Shrivastava observed that although the nation is not in a state of crisis, the situation remains fragile. Job postings fell to their lowest level since 2021, reflecting slow erosion in demand. After months of subdued gains, the labor market continues to present significant barriers for job seekers; few new opportunities are being added, and many workers are holding tightly to their existing positions. Employers, for their part, are also hesitant to let go of staff. Even with prominent headlines about layoffs, official BLS data up to August showed historically low layoff rates—averaging around 1.0% between 2021 and 2025, slightly below the pre-pandemic average of 1.2%. According to Shrivastava, a widespread spike in layoffs could “tip the tower over,” converting a gentle slowdown into a more destabilizing downturn.
LinkedIn’s internal figures, as articulated by Kory Kantenga—its head of economics for the Americas—paint a complementary yet consistent picture. October hiring was nearly flat compared with September, declining by only 0.8% but signaling a slow drift downward from early-year levels. The platform’s data also indicated that job openings per applicant continued to contract, falling 1% month-over-month. Kantenga told Business Insider that both supply and demand for labor have dropped, emphasizing the lack of momentum. The market, he said, “has been running slow, and it’s continuing to run slow.” Still, he encouraged job seekers to look toward industries displaying relative resilience, such as healthcare, construction, and certain segments of technology and media, which are showing early but incomplete signs of recovery. These industries may ultimately become the catalysts for renewed hiring once broader conditions stabilize.
Additional perspective emerged from the Bank of America Institute, which monitors employers’ payroll inflows and household spending among its customer base. Its October analysis concluded there was “no significant further slowdown in the labor market” compared to prior months. This suggests that while some cooling has occurred since the summer, the situation has not deteriorated further. The report also found that unemployment benefit payments were slightly higher than a year earlier, although their growth rate slowed relative to September. Across income brackets, households enjoyed higher pay than the previous year, though the biggest percentage increases accrued to higher-income groups. These disparities highlight an uneven recovery, where wage gains may not be fully offsetting inflationary pressures for middle- and lower-income families.
Finally, Gusto, a payroll and benefits platform serving small businesses, reported a tangible weakening in small-business hiring. Net hiring across its clients declined by 5,900 in October—the first negative reading since January—indicating that even the smallest enterprises are scaling back. Its data further showed slight increases in average hourly earnings over the year, but not enough to change the overall trend of moderation. Andrew Chamberlain, Gusto’s principal economist, characterized this as a “significant shift” in small-business hiring patterns, contrasting sharply with the robust expansion that followed the pandemic recovery. He attributed the downturn to persistently high borrowing costs, which have left business loans ranging between 7% and 15%, as well as continued trade and tariff uncertainties and elevated operating expenses. These structural challenges together are suppressing entrepreneurial confidence. Chamberlain added that more accommodative monetary policy could help reverse these constraints; with the Federal Reserve having begun modest rate cuts in September and October following a prolonged period of steady rates, he expressed cautious optimism for an eventual rebound as credit conditions ease in the coming year.
Taken together, these fragmented yet converging pieces of information from the private sector provide a provisional map of an economy navigating a difficult transition. In the absence of official BLS data, they offer a framework through which economists, investors, and workers can interpret today’s labor dynamics—one marked by decelerating growth, fragile stability, and an ever-expanding reliance on private data to fill the void left by the federal shutdown.
Sourse: https://www.businessinsider.com/no-jobs-report-alternative-data-labor-market-hiring-openings-layoffs-2025-11
