On December 18, 2025, at precisely 13:33:28 UTC, updated economic data shed new light on recent financial developments. Available exclusively through Business Insider’s subscriber platform, this report offers a detailed and data-driven examination of the current inflation and labor market indicators in the United States, clarifying a landscape that had grown fragmented due to earlier interruptions in government reporting.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the nation’s year-over-year inflation rate for November registered at 2.7%. This figure represents a notably slower pace of price growth compared to September’s rate of 3%, which had been the last month for which data was available prior to the disruption. Economists surveyed ahead of the release had generally expected inflation to accelerate slightly to 3.1%, making November’s result not only lower than anticipated but also significantly more encouraging than forecasts suggested. Such a deviation indicates a cooling in price pressures that many analysts view as a sign of broadening economic stabilization. To provide context, a rate of 3.1% would have represented the highest inflation level recorded since May 2024. Instead, the 2.7% figure signals that overall consumer costs may finally be stabilizing after a prolonged period of volatility.
This inflation release is especially notable because it follows a temporary government shutdown that effectively paralyzed data collection efforts throughout much of October and into mid-November. As a result, the BLS was unable to calculate or publish a Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2025. This interruption created a significant gap in the nation’s economic data series, hindering analysts and policymakers from forming a complete picture of short-term economic conditions. The resumption of regular reporting therefore marks an important step toward restoring transparency and precision in assessing U.S. economic performance.
Earlier in the week, the BLS had also disseminated labor market data covering October and November, which helped restore a sense of continuity amid weeks of vague and incomplete information. These releases revealed a mixed picture of employment activity: job growth exceeded many expectations, suggesting that certain sectors remained resilient, yet the unemployment rate crept above the level recorded in September, implying some underlying weakening in labor demand. Furthermore, wage growth showed signs of deceleration, hinting that pressures from rising compensation costs may be easing—a development that could further support the downward trend in inflation. Collectively, these findings paint an intricate portrait of a labor market that is neither fully robust nor decisively deteriorating but is instead adjusting to evolving macroeconomic dynamics.
The simultaneous publication of both inflation and employment reports provides essential guidance for the Federal Reserve as it prepares for its next interest rate deliberations. Prior to the CPI release, data from the CME FedWatch tool suggested that investors were assigning roughly a seventy-five percent likelihood that the Federal Reserve would opt to maintain its current benchmark interest rate after three consecutive cuts earlier in the year. Meanwhile, the probability of an additional 25-basis-point reduction stood at approximately twenty-five percent. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policymaking body responsible for determining the federal funds rate, are not scheduled to meet again until January 27 and 28. By the time of that meeting, they will have access to additional months of both inflation and labor market data, allowing for a more informed decision grounded in a fuller understanding of current economic momentum.
In summary, November’s sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation represents a potentially meaningful turning point after months of uncertainty amplified by the government shutdown. With new data now emerging, analysts, businesses, and policymakers alike are beginning to refine their outlooks for 2026. Nevertheless, the situation remains fluid, and subsequent releases in the coming weeks will determine whether this encouraging moderation in prices can be sustained. As this is a developing story, Business Insider notes that readers should check back for ongoing updates as further information becomes available.
Sourse: https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-november-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2025-12
