Across the United States, the atmosphere surrounding Thanksgiving 2024 is characterized by a heightened sense of financial caution and practicality. Even though certain indicators suggest that food prices may have begun to stabilize or plateau after years of volatility, many Americans remain firmly entrenched in what has been described as an ‘affordability mode.’ This mindset reflects not only a response to persistent inflationary pressures but also an overall recalibration of spending priorities. In turn, both restaurants and major retailers are adapting swiftly, tailoring their promotional efforts and pricing strategies to meet consumers exactly where they are: seeking value, moderation, and reassurance during a season traditionally associated with abundance.

Whether the cost of assembling the quintessential Thanksgiving feast has increased this year depends largely on which economic data one chooses to reference. The federal Consumer Price Index reports that the cost of food purchased for home consumption has risen approximately 2.7% compared with the previous year—a modest yet significant climb that subtly affects holiday budgets. By contrast, Deloitte’s consumer analysis paints a slightly more optimistic picture, suggesting that grocery prices have remained generally stable, indicating only a marginal 0.6% increase. Adding further complexity, Wells Fargo’s annual analysis of Thanksgiving dinner expenses estimates that the total cost of the meal may have actually declined between 2% and 3%, particularly for shoppers who strategically plan purchases, leverage discounts, or prioritize store brands. Hence, the numerical outlook remains mixed, illustrating how different methodological approaches can yield sharply divergent interpretations of the same spending environment.

Despite these varying data points, one constant dominates consumer sentiment: a collective sense of vigilance toward price sensitivity. Whether or not prices are up or down statistically, many households approach this holiday with a cautious eye, intent on stretching their budgets and avoiding unnecessary expenditure. Francisco Martin-Rayo, cofounder and CEO of Helios AI—a prominent agritech company specializing in modeling agricultural pricing and supply chain fluctuations—explained to Business Insider that global food markets are facing a so-called ‘triple whammy’ of intertwined challenges: lingering inflation, accelerating climate instability, and trade-related tariffs. This multifaceted set of pressures contributes to ongoing volatility, often rendering price trends unpredictable from season to season. Martin-Rayo added that while broader indicators suggest slight relief in general food inflation, select Thanksgiving staples tell a different story. For example, fresh cranberries have risen by roughly 12% year over year, and produce items such as squash and sweet potatoes show increases ranging from 5% to 10%. Although these changes may not incite outright sticker shock, the cumulative effect of incremental inflation across every side dish remains a palpable concern for many American households.

Concerns regarding affordability are not limited to the Thanksgiving table but extend into the broader holiday shopping period. Yet, even determining how much consumers intend to spend in total remains a challenge, as projections vary according to the source or demographic being analyzed. Eating outside the home has become notably more expensive; the Consumer Price Index indicates a 3.7% annual increase in the cost of dining out. Expert Market’s Food & Beverage Report further elaborates that 62% of American restaurants have raised menu prices in response to higher wages, while nearly half—about 47%—have increased prices as a direct consequence of tariffs affecting imported ingredients. These compounding factors reinforce why dining in remains the preferred choice for financially cautious families this season.

Survey data adds further nuance. PwC’s Holiday Sentiment Survey reveals that Gen X and millennial consumers—demographics traditionally balancing significant family and career responsibilities—intend to scale back overall spending, emphasizing savings and careful budget management. Conversely, baby boomers and members of Gen Z express slightly more optimism, with plans to spend more than initially projected earlier in the year. Deloitte’s study corroborates this cross-generational restraint, highlighting that Gen Z expects to reduce holiday expenditures by an estimated 34% compared with last year, while overall planned spending across age groups sits roughly 10% lower than the levels recorded in 2024. These findings underscore a pervasive emphasis on value and thrift rather than outright consumption.

A report from the International Council of Shopping Centers adds depth to this picture by revealing that 64% of consumers plan to devote more time to deal hunting this holiday season, suggesting that bargain-seeking has become both a necessity and a deliberate strategy. Deloitte similarly notes that seven out of every ten American shoppers now engage in explicit ‘value-seeking behaviors’—from joining loyalty programs to shopping at discount-focused retailers—all in an effort to maximize purchasing power. Even consumers with higher incomes appear influenced by this collective caution, as the concept of prudent spending increasingly transcends socioeconomic boundaries.

In this environment, the National Retail Federation projects that total retail spending for the holiday season—including food, décor, and gifts—will surpass an extraordinary one trillion dollars. However, growth is expected to decelerate relative to previous years, evidencing cautious consumer sentiment. The shift is even visible during hallmark shopping events such as Black Friday. According to data shared by GWI, a leading consumer research firm, there has been a striking 15.9% drop in shoppers intending to spend more than $650, accompanied by a 43.6% surge in those who plan to limit expenditures to below $130. These figures reflect a recalibration of priorities, as consumers concentrate on essential purchases and meaningful value rather than large-scale spending sprees.

Retailers, aware of this new reality, are responding with vigor. As chains like Home Depot and Target grapple with slowing sales—particularly among middle-income consumers—others are reinforcing their discounting strategies. Major players such as Walmart, Sam’s Club, and Costco have introduced preassembled Thanksgiving meal bundles priced between roughly $4 and $10 per serving, designed to appeal to cost-conscious shoppers. Although these packages represent commendable value, they generally omit pantry staples like spices, seasonings, and cooking oils—additions that customers must still procure separately. Even so, the convenience and predictability of total cost make these offerings highly attractive in an inflation-aware market.

Consumer research reinforces that shoppers are not simply chasing the lowest price tag but are instead seeking the best possible return on their spending. Deloitte’s findings support this interpretation, revealing that approximately 70% of surveyed Americans place greater importance on securing strong value than on identifying the absolute cheapest item. Complementing this perspective, PwC’s most recent holiday outlook noted an 11% year-over-year increase in online searches for terms such as ‘discount’ and ‘coupon code,’ signaling that bargain-hunting remains central to purchasing behavior. As the report concludes, consumers will undoubtedly continue to participate in holiday shopping, but apprehension about tariffs and lingering price pressures—particularly in categories like electronics, apparel, toys, groceries, and household goods—will ensure that value-conscious decisions shape the character of the 2024 holiday season more than ever before.

Sourse: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-behavior-thanksgiving-budget-holiday-inflation-black-friday-sales-2025-11